Washington Wizards O/U 33.5
Do four quarters add up to a dollar? The Wizards hope to make up for loss of Russell Westbrook in the aggregate
What happened last season?
Since John Wall left the Wizards with a heel injury and surgery at the end of December 2018, the team has amassed a 44-74 record. For the price of one lottery-protected first-round pick, the Wizards would swap out their injury-prone, past-his-prime, expensive All-Star point guard for a slightly less injury-prone, maybe-still-in-his-prime, just-as-expensive All-Star point guard.
Russell Westbrook bears many similarities in playing style to Wall as well. Both players are amongst the most explosive ever at their position with unreliable shooting from distance. Westbrook is even more extreme in those regards, historically getting around a third of shots right at the rim and barely hitting 30% of his three-point shots on a good year. Through February 2021, Westbrook was not having a good year. Westbrook was at a sub-50% TS% including 27.5% from three. Westbrook struggled through not having the luxury of a wide-open floor afforded to him in Houston to make straight-line drives to the rim. His percentage of shots from 3-feet and in dropped to under 20% for the first time in his career; he’d never had less than 29% of his shots from that region in his career.
Bradley Beal was there to compensate for Westbrook’s offensive struggles. Beal pumped in almost 1,000 points in his first 30 games; he would lead the league in scoring for much of the season until Steph Curry caught up. Beal was a man alone to start the season – in addition to Westbrook’s struggles, starting forward Rui Hachimura missed the first few games and struggled to get in game shape, three-point bomber Davis Bertans couldn’t hit a shot, and rookie forward Deni Avdija was overmatched installed as a starter. Starting center Thomas Bryant tore his ACL 10 games into the season. The Wizards would then get struck by COVID-19 in January, which knocked Hachimura and Bertans out of the lineup and forced a two-week hiatus between games. In their first four games after the COVID-forced break, the Wizards lost by 20 to the Spurs, 19 to the Rockets, 18 to the Pelicans, and 16 to the Hawks, dropping them to 3-12. The start was bad enough to make a grown man cry.
Two-thirds into the season, the Wizards were 17-32 after a four-game losing streak dropped them to 13th in the East. The team was conceding over 120 points per game in track meet-style games – the Wizards would finish the season first in pace and last in points allowed. However, a few things started to trend the Wizards way right before the final third of the season. The Wizards took part in a three-team trade that shipped out the disappointing Troy Brown and Mo Wagner projects for the more promising Daniel Gafford from the Chicago Bulls. Gafford immediately became the team’s most outstanding defender, almost by default. Out of nowhere, Robin Lopez developed the most reliable hook shot since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Bertans shook off his cold start. And most importantly, Westbrook exploded. Russ put up triple-doubles in all but 4 of his last 28 games. These were not of the Jason Kidd variety either – Russ poured in 22 points per game while easily clearing over 10 boards and assists per game. The Wizards finished the season with a 14-9 blitz that earned them a spot into the play-in round. They pummeled the Indiana Pacers to secure the 8-seed and the right to get knocked out by a far superior Philadelphia 76ers team.
What happened in the offseason?
GM Tommy Sheppard has one weird trick of taking an aging former All-Star point guard on an albatross contract and turning it into positive value. This time, Sheppard traded 33-year-old Russell Westbrook with two years and $91M remaining on his deal for three rotation players in their primes from the Los Angeles Lakers. The Wizards fortify their bench all positions by acquiring guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, forward Kyle Kuzma, and center Montrezl Harrell. Harrell is just one season removed from winning Sixth Man of the Year while KCP and Kuzma are just one year removed from contributing to a championship team.
The Wizards received the Lakers’ first round pick as part of the Westbrook trade; that asset was exchanged for Aaron Holiday, the Indiana Pacers’ backup point guard who is still on his rookie deal. Holiday regressed after a promising sophomore season with his worst shooting season to date and particular struggles to convert inside the arc. Free agent addition Spencer Dinwiddie has no such struggles there. Before a super-team assembled around him, Dinwiddie was increasing his scoring output by leaps with the Brooklyn Nets, adding at least 4 points to his average over four seasons with a high of 20.6 in the 2019-2020 season. Like the player he’s replacing, Dinwiddie is a shaky outside shooter that does his damage by getting to the rim. He also draws contact there, finishing with over 7 foul shots per game in that 2019-2020 season which ranked 11th in the league. Every player ahead of him played in one of the last two All-Star games. While he appears to be ready to suit up for the season opener after a partial ACL tear in December knocked him out for all but three games, it’s possible that his ability to get to the basket may be diminished which would have an outsized impact on his game.
The Wizards used the 15th pick in the draft on Corey Kispert, an older prospect with scoring capability from the wing. In all, the Wizards imported five solid players in their 20s and a mid-lottery pick and lost out on Russell Westbrook and an array of limited veterans in their 30s or disappointing young players that will struggle to hang on in the league.
Finally, the Wizards parted with head coach Scotty Brooks and replace him with a familiar name, Wes Unseld (Jr). Unseld is a first-time head coach but has accumulated 15 years of experience as an NBA assistant coach, including the title of Associate Head Coach with the Nuggets this past season.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
Bradley Beal has earned All-Star recognition in three of his past four years. In those All-Star seasons, he was paired with a point guard of his caliber. In that one season without Westbrook or Wall, Beal was left to carry a team without a player close to his level. His 30.5 points per game that season nearly doubled the second-most average on the team.
Beal is back in that position again, but this time he has a much more potent and proven supporting cast. First, his new backcourt mate is yet another drive-happy scorer that won’t reciprocate the spacing that Beal provides. The other thing Spencer Dinwiddie won’t do is pass the ball like Westbrook or Wall. The latter two have been mainstays in the assists per game category over the past 8 seasons. Dinwiddie simply does not have the passing chops of prime Westbrook and Wall, two of the greatest creator-distributors for three-point shots ever. Beal is sure to miss that around him. However, Beal has increased his playmaking each season and achieved a career high 6.1 assists in the season between Wall and Westbrook. He’ll need to increase his responsibility in generating shots for others to make up for the Dinwiddie/Westbrook swap.
Beal will get to play with his best set of wings since the Wizards’ last playoff appearance. KCP is likely to be Beal’s nominal backup but is apt defensively to either slide up to 3 or to take on point guards. Kyle Kuzma is also just quick and big enough to guard both forward positions. Better still, these Laker imports are reliable and willing three-point shooters. Combined, they converted 3.8 of 10 three-points per game last season. Some regression may be expected, however; KCP converted a career high, Kuzma nearly did too, and both had LeBron James generating shots for them.
Still, they are true 3-and-D threats that the Wizards did not have last season. Rookie Deni Avdija acquitted himself well defensively with a similar size/speed combo as Kuzma. He has none of that shooting, hitting just 31.5% of his threes and not exhibiting any shot creation. Davis Bertans is Avdija’s exact opposite, a shooting specialist good for 40% from distance with perhaps the least conscious thought process in the league. In his Spurs days, Bertans utilized his shot for straight-line drives that resulted in powerful finishes. Last year, almost 90% of his shots came from downtown. Perhaps his athleticism has waned as he used to be a capable defender that now routinely gets dusted. Rui Hachimura also routinely gets dusted although he showed a modest improvement on defense last season. His scoring output is relatively high for a second-year player, but he’s not a very effective secondary scoring option. He barely takes threes although he made an improvement from 29% to 33% last season. He also doesn’t live at the rim. Instead, his game is mostly in the midrange, where he takes over half his shots and converts at a relatively good rate (over 40%).
At center, the Wizards will have a multitude of options. Harrell is an excellent screen-and-dive partner that should thrive in a two-man game with Bradley Beal as he did with Lou Williams. However, he’s undersized and offers no resistance at the rim. If the Wizards need rim defense, they’ll turn to Daniel Gafford who helped shore up a mostly embarrassing defensive unit when he joined the team midseason. The pre-draft defensive comparisons to Al Horford appear to be accurate as he’s capable of wrangling in most opponents with his combination of foot speed and arm length. His 8.1% block rate would have ranked third best if he qualified for rate stat leaders. Gafford finally got to eat a bit on offense when he joined the Wizards, finally notching over 10 points a game with a near 70% TS%. Incumbent Thomas Bryant is likely to miss the start of the season but is the most well-rounded of the three centers. He’s the biggest of them all although much less effective defensively than Gafford. Bryant is the only one who can offer floor spacing as he’s converted over 40% of his threes on 2 attempts per game the past two seasons. He’s also incredibly efficient at the basket, almost never missing once he’s within 3 feet of the hoop. In his past two seasons, he’s over 65% TS% on a healthy volume.
The projection
Bradley Beal is one of the best scorers in the game who is squarely in his prime. However, this is his first chance to be the clear lone star with real NBA caliber players surrounding him. Although the Wizards lose a star in Westbrook, the Wizards gain much needed depth after years of relying on disappointing rookie contract players and over-extended veterans.
Kuzma and KCP are legitimate two-way players that will provide spacing while taking on top defensive assignments to relieve Beal and Dinwiddie from doing so. Daniel Gafford may be blossoming into a two-way big; his short stint with the Wizards provide optimism that he can be. And Thomas Bryant is that two-way big when he comes back into the fold if his ACL hasn’t sapped him of his finishing ability.
Bryant and Dinwiddie are coming off of major injury which should dampen expectations. And hovering over all of his is Beal’s contract situation – he has one year left on his deal. Do the Wizards cash in this blue chip to start a rebuild in earnest? Or are they successful enough this season to convince Beal to stay for the ride this season? With Beal and depth at every position, the Wizards are a real contender to be the best East team outside of the consensus top 6 and host a play-in game. That’s worthy of celebration for the Washington Wizards franchise.
Final bet: $957.50 on Washington Wizards OVER and $100 on Washington Wizards to YES to make playoffs (+425)