Utah Jazz O/U 52.5
The Jazz disappointed in the playoffs but only after dominating the regular season. Are the Jazz in position to win home court advantage in the West again?
What happened last season?
The 2020-2021 season began to feel like the peak of a of a half-decade long crescendo for the Utah Jazz. Quin Synder, in his seventh year as head coach, had his most masterful season yet, composing an offense known as “the blender” that left defenses chasing ghosts in the form of perpetually open three-point shooters. Donovan Mitchell was the focal point of the offense and had his most convincing season to date, marked by a second straight All-Star appearance. The blender kept churning even with Mitchell on the bench as Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles held an inter-team competition for Sixth Man of the Year (Clarkson would win the award and Ingles would finish second). The consistent offensive dominance earned the Jazz the #3 ranked offensive rating in the NBA. The 2019-2020 Jazz regressed on the defensive end, but Rudy Gobert’s individual dominance during the 2020-2021 season catapulted the Jazz back into the top five in defensive rating and earned him his third Defensive Player of the Year award along with a couple of MVP votes to boot.
That’s not all. Mike Conley bounced back from a rocky integration to the team to earn his first ever All-Star appearance which lost him the distinction of being the best player to never make the team. Bojan Bogdanovic fully recovered from his wrist surgery and played all 72 games. Add it all up and you get: the 17th highest point differential of all time, the best record in the league, and home-court advantage in a season where its rewards could be reaped again.
Unfortunately, the Jazz caught ill-timed injuries just ahead of the playoffs. Mike Conley suffered multiple hamstring setbacks including a stretch at the end of the season that caused him to miss nine games. He returned for the first round series against his old Memphis squad but re-aggravated the hamstring in the clinching win, which caused him to miss all but the last game of the second round series against the Los Angeles Clippers. Mitchell badly turned an ankle in April which caused him to miss the last 16 games of the season and Game 1 of the first round. He reaggravated the injury in Game 3 of the second round and hobbled throughout the rest of the series. After that, the Jazz wouldn’t win another game.
Despite the injuries, the Jazz had golden opportunities to advance to the conference finals. The Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard suffered an ACL injury in Game 4 that would knock him out of the playoffs. In Game 5, the Jazz drilled a playoff-record ten 3-pointers in the first quarter and would total 17 in the first half. They went cold in the third quarter and lost by eight at home. Game 6 was even more devastating – the Jazz took a 25-point lead in the third quarter and would give it all away, one wide-open Terance Mann three-pointer at a time. The second half of Game 6 looked like playoff exits of the past – over-reliance on Mitchell for offense, and exploitation of Gobert on long rotations out to the three-point line.
What happened in the offseason?
The Jazz’ core returns for another chance to avenge – or disappoint. The top seven rotation players from last season will very likely retain their minutes on the team.
The Minivan, Georges Niang, takes a road trip east to Philadelphia after four years in Utah. Niang was a fine defender and had built a reliable three-point shot, drilling at least 40% since he started taking them with some volume. Rudy Gay will take his place as the backup 4, providing a diverse offensive skillset that Niang simply did not possess. Gay became a more adept outside shooter in his time with the Spurs and will likely benefit from improved spacing that his new team will provide.
Derrick Favors’ return to the Jazz was easily the most unsuccessful aspect of the team’s otherwise flawless regular season. Favors was bad enough that the Jazz had to attach a draft pick in a trade that shipped Favors to the Oklahoma City. This year, Utah took a two-pronged approach in their search for a capable backup to Rudy Gobert. In Hassan Whiteside, the Jazz scooped up a player akin to Gobert which should allow them to play a more consistent brand of basketball throughout the game. (Just don’t expect a whole lot of “screen assists” from him, he rarely makes contact on his screens.) Whiteside never found footing in Sacramento last season but had been a capable backup up to that point. Eric Paschall is the opposite – he’s a non-imposing defensive player but will willingly step outside and fire up shots. Ultimately, neither player is a good option if (or when) Gobert’s limitations are exploited in the playoffs.
At the time of this writing, the Jazz have one open roster spot and one two-way contract that they may utilize. It’s likely that this team in title contention may keep the roster spot open to start the season and seek a buy-out signing after the trade deadline.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
I wrote this last year: “Generally, expect a performance much similar to last season’s. The Jazz return their head coach, their starting lineup, and their top three reserves from last season. If any team could play with their eyes closed, it would be this one.” For this year, revise “top three reserves” to “top two reserves” and carry on.
Mitchell took a massive leap last season (RPM 2.50), finally bringing his offensive capability with him to the court consistently. He shot more threes, hit them with more accuracy, shot more free throws, and dished more assists. Many of those assists come off of impressive cross-court passes he’s now making with regularity. Mitchell can whip one-handed passes into the hands of three-point shooters from 40-feet away, which might be his greatest advancement. If he repeats last year’s performance, he’ll blow out this year’s projection which considers his much less efficient history.
Mike Conley had one of his best seasons ever (RPM 4.37), redeeming the letdown of his Jazz debut. At age 34, regression should be expected but his game isn’t particularly dependent on athleticism. The primary concern for Conley is availability; he’s yet to crack 1,500 minutes in a Jazz uniform. Thankfully for the Jazz, the days of relying on backup guards like Dante Exum and Emmanuel Mudiay are over. Clarkson is capable of backing up either guard position.
The wing rotation of Ingles-Bogdanovic-O’Neale is as reliable as there is in the league both in performance and availability. Each achieved positive RPMs and surpassed 1,900 minutes in their last two seasons. Ingles and O’Neale reached career highs in three-point attempts; “the blender” should continue to provide opportunities to launch. The incoming Rudy Gay (he will miss the start of the season recovering from a heel injury) is a good bet to do so as well, and he walks in with the best midrange game of the bunch. Trent Forrest and Miye Oni may get a little more playing time to develop.
Gobert enjoyed his best season to date and should retain his status as one of the most impactful centers in the league (at least until the playoffs start.) Whiteside was lost in a deep big man rotation in Sacramento but is unlikely to be challenged as the primary backup center in Utah. Eric Paschall’s All-Rookie First Team award should be revoked; I suspect his minutes may be as well.
The projection
The regular season Jazz are as reliable as they come. The Jazz have hit the over in each of their last five seasons. The team ranks sixth in both returning minutes and eighth in minutes played in the league from last season. Veteran teams with continuity are typically great plays for an over.
The primary concern for the Jazz is Mike Conley’s availability, but the projected minutes considers his injury history. The other concern for the Jazz is age; all of the main rotation players save Mitchell are in their prime or post-prime, although none are over 35. Further flattening the age curve is the skill level of those players – these are canny, deadeye shooters with some pretty good size. And in Gobert’s case, he’s a 7’-3” all-time rim defender.
Also consider that the Jazz had the point differential of a 60-plus win team despite a slow-down at the end of the season with their starting backcourt sidelined. Expect the blender to churn out a win total in the mid-50s that should be good enough to clinch home court advantage in the playoffs. If you’re going to bet on the Jazz to defend that home court advantage, do it now while everyone is skeptical of their playoff chances.