San Antonio Spurs O/U 29.5
After decades of title contention and then years of middling results, the Spurs finally face a long rebuild.
What happened last season?
The Spurs entered and exited the Orlando bubble with an odd mix of a team. Half of the roster were former All-Stars and proven veterans, and the other half were solid but spectacular players on rookie contracts. The front office came to a fork in the road and went straight – they continued to defer an inevitable rebuild but also chose not to buttress their aging core for the next playoff push. The only notable modification was the addition of rookie Devin Vassell and loss of Bryn Forbes. By choosing the middle road, the Spurs ended in the middle of the road again. San Antonio was good enough to make the play-in game but fell short of advancing to the Playoffs proper for a second consecutive season. In the two seasons prior to that, the Spurs finished seventh in the West and were dismissed in the first round.
The Spurs rebuild finally got underway when LaMarcus Aldridge – the prized free agent that kept the Spurs in title contention for a couple of seasons – once again asked out of San Antonio. This time, his wish was granted. The trade deadline, however, came and went without any of DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills, or Rudy Gay getting cashed in for forward-looking assets.
On the court, the Spurs relied heavily on DeRozan who embraced the role of small-ball playmaking power forward. He averaged a career high in assists with most of the offense operating through him in the midrange. Despite the spike in responsibility, DDR lowered his turnovers to just two per game, nearly a career low. He also averaged over 20 points per game, operating in same spots he always has. Per Kirk Goldsberry, DeRozan led the league in points on the left midblock and led the league in in field goal percentage from the right elbow. DDR was also the Spurs crutch in the clutch – he finished third in the NBA in crunch time scoring.
The young Spurs made modest strides in their games. Derrick White was one of the few Spurs to embrace the three-point shot and pumped up his three-point shot frequency to over 50%. Keldon Johnson bulked up and used his body like a battering ram to get to his shots as close to the rim as possible. Dejounte Murray developed an effective pull-up elbow jumper that also landed him a spot on Goldsberry’s Leading Scorers by Zone chart. However, all of this midrange-based offense predictably resulted in a below average offensive efficiency (21st). The Spurs finished dead-last in three-point shot frequency and were only one of two teams last season to make less than 10 threes a game.
The defense was also middling (17th) despite the emergence of Jacob Poeltl as a brick wall at the rim. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White have receded from their impact as All-Defensive worthy players, although they remain above average. Mostly, the Spurs suffered from having to play small with DeRozan at one of the forward spots to generate the little spacing they could muster with a roster short on shooters. Rudy Gay and Keldon Johnson were the only big wings available to Popovich and neither are defensive stalwarts.
What happened in the offseason?
The last time the Spurs underwent a rebuild, David Robinson, Sean Elliott, and Terry Cummings were added to the roster. This time, no All-Stars are walking through that door. The additions of this offseason are modest and curious.
None of the Spurs’ veteran core are retained. Patty Mills and Rudy Gay simply walked as free agents, each moving on to title contending teams. (LaMarcus Aldridge had done the same, only in the middle of last season.) The Spurs did well to arrange a sign-and-trade that sent DeMar DeRozan to Chicago in exchange for draft picks including a deferred first round pick plus big, non-shooting wings in Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu. These player additions shore up a major hole from seasons past, although it’s likely that neither will make it to the end of the season. Thad Young is a reliable veteran that will pique the interest of playoff-ready teams ahead of the trade deadline.
The Spurs also addressed their spacing concern, further exacerbated by the Bulls acquisitions, by signing Doug McDermott and Bryn Forbes. McDermott has rounded out his game with more shots inside the arc, pumping up both his volume and efficiency of two-point attempts which also led to a modest increase of free throw attempts. The result was a hot 63.5% TS%, a career high. However, he could stand to pump up his three-point attempts; he’s yet to fire at least five per game in his career. Conversely, Forbes only knows three-point attempts and he enjoyed his best shooting season with the Bucks that wasn’t totally reliant on him to provide spacing. He returns to San Antonio, a team that was totally reliant on him to provide spacing.
On the curious side, the Spurs used their lottery pick on the youngest player in the draft. Josh Primo was on no one’s draft board at Pick #12 but maybe the Spurs should be swinging for the fences after a sustained run of drafting solid but limited prospects. The other free agent signing of note was Zach Collins, who hasn’t played a minute over the last calendar year. He’s been out with a fractured foot and does not have a definitive timetable for returning to the court. Over the last two seasons, he’s only played 11 games.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
Since the Kawhi Leonard trade, the Spurs have most subsisted on isolations and post-ups from DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge and had a fading resemblance to the Summertime Spurs when Patty and the bench unit took the floor. DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Aldridge were first, second, and fourth in usage rate for the team. No player came close to challenging DeRozan for the most offensive win shares (5.9). Now that all the principles are gone – what now?
The biggest curiosity for the Spurs is how they will generate offense. All players will need to increase their aggressiveness in taking and generating shots. The first candidate to take a leap is Olympic gold medalist Keldon Johnson. Keldon impressed with his ability to bulldoze his way to the rim, although with middling efficiency and not much of a knack for getting to the foul line. He’ll need to develop countermoves to prevent defenses from sitting on his paint forays.
Dejounte Murray has developed a reliable jumper from the elbows, but his three-point shot went the other way last season, cratering to 31.7%. Murray does not make up for the poor outside shooting with offense at the rim. He takes less than 20% of his shots within 3 feet and generates just two free throw attempts a game. Derrick White also regressed from a little from distance (36.6% to 34.6%) but at least he did so on over double the attempts. He’s developed a good floater, which is necessary because he also fails to get to the rim. The Spurs, then, will be relying on point guards who don’t create a high volume of scoring drives and neither have demonstrated much creativity with their passing. It seems that most of the team will be left fending for themselves for offense.
It’s likely that the addition of Forbes and McDermott help in regard to being targets for drive and dishes. Lonnie Walker doesn’t lack for shot aggression and he’s one of the rare players on the team that only subsists on threes and layups. Devin Vassell will need to expand his shot creation. He takes most of shots from the corners but has flashed some off-the-dribble ability.
The Spurs should be at least an average defense with their starting trio of Murray-White-Poeltl, but team’s defensive acumen will shrink significantly when they come off the floor. Walker has been mostly clueless defender despite good athletic markers while Forbes suffers from the opposite limitations. Thad Young will be seeing some time at 5; he and Eubanks are undersized at center.
The projection
If there was a prop bet for worst offensive efficiency in the league, I’d lay down some money on San Antonio. The team was as incredible dependent on DeRozan which sapped Murray and White a developmental opportunity. I expect a more egalitarian offense this season but mostly to see who emerges as the best option. If the best option is McDermott, then the season will have been wasted.
The Spurs could try to dig their heels in on defense as both Murray and White have shown themselves capable of All-Defensive Team performances and Poeltl worthy of consideration. Keldon and Vassel have upside on that side of the floor, but the rest of team is limited in defensive capability.
Only the Thunder and Rockets have clearly excused themselves from playoff contention and I expect the Spurs will be the next to drop out. The team has cap space and draft picks to look forward to in Year Two of a seemingly earnest rebuild. The Spurs statistical projection of 30 wins matches their win total line but they’ll be seeking lottery ping pong balls over wins by the end of the season. However, they’re decent enough to keep away from embracing the tank until at least the trade deadline.