Portland Trail Blazers O/U 41.5
Can the darlings of the offseason return to their 2018-2019 heights?
What happened last season?
It’s been two years since the Trail Blazers’ charmed conference finals run. Blazers fans (and Playoff P haters) will replay the Dame series walk-off so long as YouTube exists. The quadruple overtime Game 3 win over the Nuggets went so long that anyone who took a pre-game edible sobered up by the time the game finally ended. And even though the Warriors’ place in the 2019 Finals was inevitable, those damned Blazers nearly fended off a sweep, losing in overtime with a Dame shot at the buzzer that didn’t come true.
The Blazers entered the 2019-2020 season with expectations of another long playoff run, but these expectations were terribly unreasonable. Jusef Nurkic had an incredible 2018-2019 season (4.02 RPM) that ended with an awful leg break in the playoffs which kept him sidelined until the restart in the bubble. Portland would soon learn that having big wings that couldn’t shoot was better than having no wings at all. Their primary wing rotation included Kent Bazemore (traded), Rodney Hood (hurt), Mario Hezonja (terrible), and Anfernee Simons. Sophomore Simons entered the season with incredible, albeit short-lasting hype, as he had one of the worst plus/minuses (-3.75 RPM) in the league his rookie year. He was awful again, but the Blazers simply had no other options. Even Zack Collins playing semi-out of position at 4 was off the table after he went under the knife to treat a bad ankle.
Enter Carmelo Anthony. In the previous three years, Melo went from being torched in the playoffs to salary dumped to waived to signed for the minimum to waived again and unemployed. But Anthony (-1.76 RPM) could (a) walk without crutches and (b) was not Mario Henzoja (-3.62 RPM), and that was good enough for Portland. The narrative that he saved the season was overrated – Gary Trent Jr. (-1.07 RPM) scorched the earth in the bubble and Trevor Ariza (0.10 RPM) was a good when available – but it’s likely the Blazers don’t make the playoffs without his 1900 minutes and some seriously clutch shooting in the seeding games. (I’ll pause here to allow the reader to take three fingers to the dome.)
I’ve yet to mention Damian Lillard (3.14 RPM) and C.J. McCollum (2.36 RPM). These two were Atlas. Not only did they carry the Earth, they flung it from outside the Milky Way line.
That the Blazers required a play-in game to make the playoffs despite Lillard and McCollum’s godly efforts speaks to how decimated and limited the Blazers’ roster was.
What happened in the offseason?
That brings us to Hassan Whiteside. With both Nurkic and Collins sidelined for most season, Whiteside (1.43 RPM) did an admirable job of eating up minutes. I think he’s a little like late-stage Carmelo – guarantee him a sizable role, and he’ll play nice. Ariza would have been a fine returning starter, but it’s clear that the Blazers are aiming for something better than fine.
Neil Olshey flipped two first round picks for perennial advanced stats darling Robert Covington (2.30 RPM) to take one of the starting wing spots. Olshey, like many of us, don’t know what he’s got til it’s gone. After letting his two rangy wings that couldn’t shoot (Al-Faroqu Aminu, Mo Harkless) leave in the previous offseason, he signed a younger version in Derrick Jones Jr. (-1.76 RPM, 28.0% 3pt). In addition to that, he brought back fan favorite Enes Kanter. Hopeless Harry Giles (-4.37 RPM) will fill in on the second night of back-to-backs.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
The team is once again projected to depend on both the greatness and availability of Lillard and McCollum. Dame has been a certified ironman (over 2500 minutes played each season) and CJ has been there or close over his last five years. They come into this season healthy and in their prime; there’s no more reliable backcourt in the league. Simons played 1500 minutes last year but that was out of necessity. Terry Stotts may start the season with Simons in the rotation, but Trent and Hood will snatch those up if he continues to disappoint as projected.
Zach Collins will start the season on the sidelines, but Covington can slide up to 4 (or down from 5 if you’re Morey/D’Antoni) to start the season with Carmelo and Jones filling out the wing rotation. Little will get a chance to show something while Collins is on the mend but he’s likely to remain a deep rotation player.
Nurkic was pulling 30 minutes a game in his return in the bubble, but he’s never gone a season without at least 10 games missed. Hopefully Kanter’s bumps and bruises don’t coincide with Nurk’s. If those do, Harry Giles will see the floor and Kings fans will text their Blazers friends, “Wanna talk about it?”
Stotts is one of longest tenured coaches in the league and will return for a ninth year. Although the team is in the bottom third in continuity of projected minutes, the new players are supporting stars that have played for Stotts for their entire careers.
The projection
Early offseason banter has been mostly praising the Blazers which once again is leading to lofty expectations. Yes, Nurkic is ready to start the season and is an upgrade over Whiteside. This time, however, Collins is the one who will miss the start of the season which will result in suboptimal Melo and Giles run. Covington is a massive upgrade over any of the wings the Blazers trotted out last season but the team did recover with the Ariza trade, Carmelo acquisition, and Trent ascent. Rodney Hood will be making a difficult return to the floor after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury.
Remember: this team barely made the playoffs last year at 35-39 (37.6 expected wins for 82-game season) with C.J. leading the league in minutes played and Dame turning in an MVP (of the Seeding Games) season. Any drop off in production or availability would kill the Blazers, and this projection is assuming they’ll be as good and as healthy as last year. A 4.3 expected win increase due to upgrade on the fringes isn’t bad sans expectations, which is what your writer/calculator is projecting. Your bookie is asking for double that.
The Blazers project as a better playoff team than a regular season team due to their top end talent. But they have to make the playoffs first. They probably will. Just don’t be surprised when they have to survive another play-in game to do it.
Final bet: