Oklahoma City Thunder O/U 23.5
The Thunder explicitly tanked the end of last season and only got the #6 pick of it. How bad are they willing to get for a bigger lottery prize next summer?
What happened last season?
They were too good to tank. Prior to the 2019-2020, Oklahoma City Thunder GM Sam Presti traded away Paul George, a star who just finished third in MVP voting. That would be the domino fall that led Presti to trade away franchise icon Russell Westbrook who had just completed his third straight regular season averaging a triple-double. In return for Westbrook, they received a point guard with star potential coming off his rookie season, an all-time point guard making nearly $40M a year at age 34, and draft picks through the rest of the decade. This team with aspirations for a high lottery pick invertedly tied for the 4th best record in the West and came two points short of advancing to the second round to face the eventual champions.
It was happening again. Once again, Presti traded away his best player and all-time point guard, but this time received a merely good point guard (Ricky Rubio), three other players, and of course, future draft picks. This time, however, Presti wouldn’t dare let a competent point guard buoy a modest roster. He traded Rubio for the rawest prospect in the draft (Aleksej Pokusevski).
And yet – the Thunder found themselves winning games in spite of themselves. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued to build on his early success, playing at a level worthy of All-Star consideration. SGA has already established himself as one of the best players for developing their own shot, besting league averages for both volume and efficiency. Glancing at The Athletic’s Seth Partnow’s plot, we see that SGA is only bested by Donovan Mitchell’s epic playoff takeovers.
Lu Dort built on his on his 2020 playoff breakout and proved himself to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league – his combination of strength, lateral quickness and tenacity resulted in a performance that yielded All-Defensive Team votes (he finished 7th amongst guards). Maybe more impressively, he more than doubled his per-36 three-point attempts and improved his percentage to a nearly respectable 34.3%.
SGA and Dort’s performances plus a canny season from Al Horford and good deal of luck in close games resulted in a near-.500 first half for the Thunder, which left the team knocking on the door of a play-in game. Presti would not be foiled again. After the win against the Timberwolves to get the Thunder to 19-24 (11th in West), SGA would not play another game for the season. Al Horford played the next game and then was asked to go home. The day after Horford was deactivated, veteran guard George Hill was sent to the 76ers. Lu Dort would miss over half the games after the trade deadline. It required a short-term sabotage to get the Thunder to lose and it worked – the Thunder embarked on losing streaks of 3, 14, and then 9 before beating an-even-more-determined-to-lose Los Angeles Clippers in the season finale. They missed hitting the preseason win total over 24.5 by half a game.
What happened in the offseason?
Minus a couple of Draft Day flips and picks, the Thunder had a relatively quiet offseason compared to the previous ones that had future Hall of Famers coming in and out of the team. The 35-year-old Al Horford was predictably unloaded. In return, Presti received a first round pick that was then traded for more first round draft picks and Kemba Walker. Presti forwent the pump-and-dump strategy with Walker and bought out his contract instead.
This season, the only incoming veteran to start with the team is Derrick Favors who was acquired from the Utah Jazz along with (you’re not going to believe this) a future first round pick. Favors surely will be traded at the first batting of an eyelash from a rival GM although Favors is quickly becoming out of style in the league. Favors will replace the glass-eating Moses Brown who was included in the trade for Kemba Walker. Brown earned a rotation spot in the second half of the season; it’s surprising Presti threw his 23-year-old big body in a double salary dump transaction.
In the draft, the Thunder prioritized offensive dynamism by selecting Josh Giddey and Tre Mann. Giddey is likely to be started from the onset given the high draft investment and relative barrenness on the wings. Mann’s path to playing time is more crowded, although he’ll likely get increased run as the season draws to a close. Mann significantly increased his offensive output in his second year with the University of Florida and will have a chance to lead possessions on a team starved for playmaking.
In addition to Giddey and Mann, the Thunder add a pair of second-round picks from this draft (Robinson-Earl, Wiggins) and 2020 second round pick Vit Krejci who spent last season recovering from an ACL injury. Several reclamation projects – Justin Jackson, Darius Miller, Jaylen Hoard – were abandoned. With five rookies imported and several league veterans departed, the Thunder somehow become an even younger team despite ranking as the youngest team in the league last season with a minutes-weighted-average age of 22.84.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
Despite the below-average ranking in minutes returning from last year’s team, the Thunder will pick up this upcoming season with a fair bit of continuity. None of the outgoing players from this offseason played more than 1,000 minutes with the team last season. Only three new players – veteran Derrick Favors and rookies Josh Giddey and Tre Mann – are expected to be part of the primary rotation.
Each player besides Mike Muscala and Favors – both barely turned 30 years old this summer – are very young or in their prime. Theo Maledon and Poku were two rookies that received over 1,000 last season. Each received increased playing time as the season drew to a close, particularly Poku (73% of his minutes was played in the second half of the season). Poku should benefit from a more structured offense with SGA at the helm. For Maledon, last year’s minutes leader, rookie point guards tend to have a more substantial leap in their second season.
The exits of 7’-2” Moses Brown and the stout Tony Bradley leaves the Thunder with the slightest 4/5 rotation in the league. After Favors (who surely won’t be on the team after the trade deadline), the Thunder only have shy-of-200-lbs Poku and shy-of-7-feet Mike Muscala as the nominal centers. The Thunder’s slew of 6’-8”, just over 200 lb. forwards will also be overwhelmed playing at power forward. This team seems like a good bet to have worst rebound rate in the league. Brown, Bradley, and Horford lead the team in rebounds per 36 minutes and all of them are gone.
The Thunder had the worst offensive rating in the league last year, a problem exacerbated by the SGA and Horford benching and the Hamidou Diallo trade. SGA and Diallo led the team in usage rate while Horford was by far the Thunder’s best non-guard passer. The Thunder were left to resort to Darius Bazley and Svi Mykhailiuk as their primary offensive options while a rookie point guard conducted in the half court. (No wonder their tank was so successful.) The Thunder won’t be league worst while SGA is suited up. Josh Giddey is likely to start and there’s promise that he will be a source to generate offense competently. Poku may also be less shy in Year 2, a win for all League Pass subscribers. He too may eventually find himself in the starting lineup.
There’s room for Lu Dort to improve again on his three-point shooting. He increased his attempts to 7.7 per 36 minutes; 10 attempts may be a reasonable ceiling.
The projection
The Thunder project to be the worst team in the West but they’re not absolutely devoid of talent until they choose to be. SGA will earn All-Star consideration if he continues on his upward trajectory as expected and if the Thunder’s record isn’t embarrassing. Lu Dort should be an early favorite to win one of All-Defensive Team guard spots now that his playoff performance against James Harden in 2020 was proven throughout last season. The rest of the youth should improve across the board.
The primary question is: when will Thunder choose to be absolutely devoid of talent? The Thunder’s three best players – SGA, Dort, and Horford – were all benched with months left to go in the season. The Thunder have yet to secure their top-notch prospect to pair with SGA and have demonstrated willingness to embrace the tank to improve their odds of getting one. This time, however, the Thunder may actually have some non-disastrous outlets for offense if and when they choose to shut down SGA.
Despite the semi-enthusiastic projection of four games over the Vegas line, the Thunder should not be trusted to play the season straight. I’d expect a season similar to the last in which their competitive through the trade deadline and then near league-worst levels when the benching starts. That still may be good enough to barely clear the over.