New York Knicks O/U 42.5
No one picked the Knicks to finish 4th in the East year. Can they surprise by repeating their success?
What happened last season?
Two out of three times, hiring Tom Thibodeau works every time. (No one has yet to fix Wolves, not even Kanye.) The most significant change the Knicks made over the offseason was the installation of Thibs to be their head coach. For the second time in his career, Thibs inherited a middling defense (09-10 Bulls 11th, 19-20 Knicks 21st) and transformed them into one of the best in the league (10-11 Bulls 1st, 20-21 Knicks 3rd). Nerlens Noel, who posted his best defensive box plus/minus of his career, was a key fortification, but otherwise, Thibs improved his team internally. Reggie Bullock developed into a true 3-and-D player and earned nearly 2,000 minutes as a result. Thibs found it irresistible to start defensive stalwart Elfrid Payton despite his league worst ORPM rating. Thibs reunited himself with former Chicago Bulls Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose. Julius Randle and RJ Barrett were the only two players to eclipse 2,500 minutes played last season. It was all classic Thibodeau.
However, the offense was a slog, finishing last in pace and 23rd in efficiency. The offense relied heavily on Julius Randle isolations, who finished second in the league in total isos. (Westbrook and Randle had 415 and 393 isos respectively in a two-man race for isolation leader; Damian Lillard was third with 331.) Randle thrived on volume more than efficiency to get his 24 points per game, but he did rocket his 3-point percentage to 41% (he’s 34% for his career). He mastered the baseline fallaway, a difficult (and difficult looking) shot that sent the Garden rocking all season long. Randle earned his first All-Star appearance and even garnered a top 10 MVP finish for dragging the Knicks’ offense along.
Perhaps even more promising for the Knicks was the development of their backcourt. RJ Barrett had a mostly forgettable rookie season as the Knicks played musical chairs amongst maybe the most flawed point guard collection of last decade. Barrett increased all of his shooting percentages, including knocking down 40% of his threes. More electrifying was rookie Immanuel Quickley who exhibited no regard for shot selection. He had the worst field percentage amongst the entire rotation but did so on a high volume of three-pointers, half of which seemed to come several feet behind the line. Finally, there was the midseason acquisition of Derrick Rose. Thibs leaned on Rose more than anyone else in their 5-game playoff stint – Rose was their most reliable creator and ended up leading the team in points.
Mercifully, the hopes for a Frank Ntilikina and Kevin Knox emergence where abandoned as neither played over 500 minutes. Obi Toppin’s slow start did not inspire an investment in playing time despite his draft position. Instead, Thibs played Toppin less than he did Taj Gibson, who was initially waived before the season. Mitchell Robinson had resumed his role of reliable defensive center, but his season was interrupted with a broken hand and then a foot fracture. Although the team was surely thrilled with its first playoff appearance in almost 10 years, the low rate of player developmental success is a disappointment for the Knicks.
What happened in the offseason?
The Knicks have a come a long way from the 2018-19 point guard rotation of Frank Ntilikina, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Dennis Smith. RJ Barrett has emerged as a real starter, Derrick Rose is a reliable sixth man, and now Kemba Walker falls into their laps after getting traded then waived. Walker’s 1-year, $8M deal is a no-lose proposition for the Knicks as Walker brings sorely needed offensive efficiency to the table. He suited up for over half the games with Celtics last season and scored on a TS% in line with his All-Star seasons. Volume more than efficiency muted his output and one can expect Thibs to lean on Kemba for as long as his knees hold up.
The Knicks plucked yet another guard from the Celtics in Evan Fournier, a similarly efficient scoring threat. He posted his career high TS% last season, mostly on the strength of a 41.3% three-point shooting accuracy which was also a career high but also not wildly out of line with previous performance. However, he struggled with COVID and had his annual disappointing playoff performance in his short stint in Boston.
Conversely, the Knicks lose their two tenured guards (Payton, Ntilikina) with some of the worst offensive efficiency in the league. The Knicks will give up some defensive acumen but will certainly come out ahead with these transactions. Their major loss is Reggie Bullock, who was a major positive with his two-way play and durability. The Knicks did not acquire a classically sized swingman and will emphasize the “small” in small in forward with their rotation.
The Knicks used their late first-round pick on shooting guard Quentin Grimes. Second round picks Miles McBride and Jericho Sims generated excitement in Summer League, and they earned guaranteed money with their showing in Vegas. Last season, Immanuel Quickley quickly earned Thibs’ confidence; these two may have a shot to do so as well.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
Thibodeau is famous for having his stars log long minutes and may be expected to do so again. Randle’s minutes per game leapt from 32.5 to 37.6; his minutes per game also led the league. He’s mostly been durable after breaking his leg in his NBA debut. What’s less reliable is his performance – his first All-Star appearance came in his seventh year in the league. He had career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and three-point percentage. The most suspect leap is the latter most; he improved upon his previous season long distance shooting by nearly 14 percentage points. Randle is in his prime, but the 2020-2021 looks like an outlier.
The backcourt rotation is highly dependent on Walker and Rose, aging players with injury concerns. Rose hasn’t topped 1,400 minutes since the 2016-2017 season when he was in his prime age. Kemba, despite coming to the Knicks for cheap, was waived. He missed 38% of his games during his two-year stint with the Celtics. However, Kemba remains a better-than-average point guard when he is available and will likely see more opportunities to score than what he had in Boston. Rose turned in a solid offensive season and was recognized with a third-place vote for Sixth Man of the Year. Defensively, he’s still big and quick enough to bother opponents – his combined steal and block rate of 3.4 last season was one of his best. Another half-step lost at age 33 would have an outsized impact on his all-around effectiveness.
Barrett and Quickley help mitigate for that injury concern. Barrett was a workhorse last season and is a solid bet to the lead the league in minutes played this season. Quickley was a badly needed sparkplug for a bench in need of anyone to take shots, particularly before Rose’s arrival. McBride appears to be cut from the same cloth. Alec Burks is a long-time heat check shooter.
The Knicks lack a true “3” with the departure of Reggie Bullock. Evan Fournier (6’-7”, 200 lb.) will likely get the start at small forward. The Knicks also got smaller by swapping out Payton and Ntilikina for Kemba. These modifications are likely to drag down the Knicks rebound rate and overall defensive efficiency.
The center position should be one Thibs can rely upon. Noel is squarely in his prime and should garner some All-Defensive Team buzz. Mitchell Robinson was once the Knicks’ most promising young player but had his season shortened with a broken hand. He’s performed well as a help defender and lob threat thus far and is a reasonable bet to improve. Obi Toppin’s utilization will be curious. With Robinson healthy, his path to playing time becomes even more crowded and Thibs seems much more interested in playing reliable players over developing young ones.
The projection
At first glance, it looks like the Knicks should be even stronger than they were last season by adding Kemba and Fournier and not losing too much of significance their backcourt exchange. However, they do lose Reggie Bullock who not only was a strong performer, but a reliable one.
The primary cause for skepticism is regression, primarily from Randle. He was no one’s idea of a MVP candidate going into last season but finished in eighth, misguided voting or not. His volume and three-point efficiency from last season are way out of line with his previous performance.
The Knicks finished with the 4-seed in a weak-as-ever Eastern Conference which also boosts the perception of the Knicks being something of a playoff lock. They’ll have much more competition for seeds 4-through-10 and it’s not unreasonable to predict that the team that failed to make the playoffs in seven seasons preceding the most recent one fails to make the playoffs again.