Minnesota Timberwolves O/U 33.5
The Wolves have top-10 offensive potential. But will the stars stay on the floor and keep opponents to less than 120 points?
What happened last season?
At the beginning of the 2019-2020 season, the Timberwolves started the season 10-8 with designs of crashing the Western Conference playoffs. Their threat was fleeting as the Wolves would end up with one of the worst records in the league. This past season, Wolves’ high-water mark would be just two games into the season, ascending to 2-0 with a road victory over the Utah Jazz. A seven-game losing streak would follow, dooming the team to irrelevancy yet again.
The Wolves traded away their 2021 first round pick and former overall #1 pick Andrew Wiggins to acquire D’Angelo Russell before the 2020 trade deadline. The Wolves had incentive to lose in the 2019-2020 season when they raced to the bottom of the standings to eventually draft at #1 yet again. They had no intentions of being bad this past season; they simply were bad. As a result, Ryan Saunders was replaced by Toronto Raptors assistant coach Chris Finch midseason.
Injuries ensured that the Wolves would not reach whatever ceiling they have. After those first two wins, Karl-Anthony Towns would play only two games through February 10 with a dislocated wrist, missing a total of 20 games. D’Angelo Russell played in the first 14 games of the season before he started to sit out a few games to rest an ailing leg. On February 10, Russell would opt to have knee surgery that would keep him off the floor until April. Towns and Russell would not get to take the court together until April 5. Even in that game they would have to wait to play alongside each other – Russell came off the bench and stayed in the 6th man role for parts of the remaining season. In all, these friends and foundations of the team played a mere 461 minutes together. Malik Beasley, another young, key piece of the team was shut down on April 3 just one game before Russell would return to the court. Towns, Russell, and Beasley have played in just four games together to date.
The extended absence of the three best scorers on the team simply left the Wolves overmatched. Offseason addition Ricky Rubio seemed to fit on paper until the talent next to him became paper thin. Rubio’s shooting cratered, undoing a steady progress of scoring productivity he built over his years with Utah and Phoenix. It was a sight Wolves fans were all too familiar with – 31% shooting from three and a general adversity to look for his own shot. Rubio surely infuriated Wolves fans further by leading the Olympics in scoring with 25.5 point per game, tripling his output with the Wolves on nearly the same minutes.
At least the Wolves’ latest #1 pick showed that he was willing to take the task of primary offensive threat. Anthony Edwards had a usage rate of 27% in his debut and pumped in 19.3 points per game. He exhibited a one-track mind when he got the ball – Edwards tallied a piddling 2.9 assists per game. And when he shot the ball, which was frequent, he wasn’t terribly efficient at it. His percentages across the court were below average except at the rim where he threw down trending-on-Twitter dunks.
Add it all up and the team finished in 25th in offensive efficiency. They were even worse on the defensive side of the game, ranking 28th. Towns has been notoriously lost on defense throughout his career on that side of the ball. The Wolves roster was littered with undersized 4s which meant that there was nothing imposing in the paint for opponents and no one to clean the glass. Russell has been overmatched his whole career on defense. Edwards and Beasley have the build to be impactful defensive players but have yet to demonstrate the willingness.
What happened in the offseason?
The Wolves depart with Ricky Rubio for the second time, this time in a trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Taurean Prince. Prince had his least impactful season since his first one, first as player not terribly essential to a Finals hopeful (Brooklyn Nets), then as a non-building block on a rebuilding team (Cleveland). Prior to that, Prince was a reasonable stretch-4 option for teams with modest goals playing starter’s minutes. Prince finds himself in that situation with the Wolves.
Ricky Rubio wasn’t the only former Wolves lottery draft pick to leave the team. Jarrett Culver, drafted #6th overall just two years ago, was traded with Juan Hernangomez to the Memphis Grizzlies for Patrick Beverley. The Wolves came to terms with their Culver error quickly – Culver only saw 500 minutes on the floor last season. That was generous of the coaching staff. Culver puked up a sub-50% TS% and did not earn his keep on defense. Beverley is certainly capable of keeping up on defense. He’s still an annoying but effective on-ball defender although he seems to be making up for waning athleticism with a somehow increased tenacity. He ranked 12th in fouls per minute last year and every player above him is at least 6” taller.
The Wolves did not have a first round draft pick last season but will import a first rounder from the 2020 Draft, Leandro Bolmaro. Bolmaro suited up for the Argentina Olympic team this past summer. At least Wolves fans won’t be pining for FIBA Bolmaro – he was a bit player off the bench that had a summer high of 4 points.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
The 2021-2022 Minnesota Timberwolves may have had a peak into their future with the end of the 2021 season. When D’Angelo Russell returned the floor on April 5, the Wolves finally had nearly all of their principals in place – Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards (but no Malik Beasley) playing under the direction of head coach Chris Finch. The Wolves finished the season 11-11; in Minnesota, this is cause for optimism.
The Wolves cranked up their scoring average to nearly 120 points per game in large part due to their three-point frequency and accuracy increases. Towns in particular fired away more often from beyond, nearly matching his all-time high of 7 per game from his last All-Star season. Conversely, Wolves opponents also saw their scoring average come just a few tenths of 120 points. Towns and Russell have always been one-way players so it’s a less than shocking result that the average Wolves game ended 120-119 when both of them suited up.
Patrick Beverley should complement any of the Wolves trio of scoring guards well. Beverley thrives on taking on the biggest defensive assignment although most indicators are suggesting that he’s become less capable of taking on the task – his steal rate is down, and his foul rate is way up. His marksmanship, however, is as steady as it gets, as he’s drilled between 38% and 40% of his threes over the last six seasons. He might be the only 3-and-D threat on the team which is a shortcoming exacerbated by Beverley’s frequent unavailability. He missed almost half of last season’s games and 21 of 72 games the season before.
Josh Okogie fell way short of 30% three-point shooting yet again and he’s become one of the most gun-shy rotation players in the league. Jarred Vanderbilt is absolute bulldog and provides plus rebounding for a team that badly needs it. However, he’s only made one three-point shot in his career. Conversely, Taurean Prince is a willing shooter but not much of a stopper. Finch might be left hoping that Jaden McDaniels can build off a promising rookie season in which he held his own on defense and knocked in 36% of his threes. If the shooting is real, McDaniels could be a passable option to start at the 4.
Malik Beasley will likely be assigned to leading bench units. He’s blossomed in Minnesota offensively with the allowance to generate his own offense instead of playing off Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, his former teammates in Denver. He’ll often be paired with Naz Reid who has built a Towns-like game with solid finishing ability at the rim and a comfortable three-point shot from the top of arc. He’s also become a solid deterrent at the rim, ranking in the top 10 in block percentage. I’ll hazard a guess that Reid is the only Wolves player to rank in the top 10 in any defensive metrics.
The projection
Offense should not be a problem for Minnesota. The Wolves have four guys on the team who are capable of carrying a sizable scoring load. Towns has exhibited that scoring talent at an All-Star level, although injury and personal tragedy have kept him from those heights these past two seasons. Prior to those seasons, he was workhorse, including playing in all 82 games his first three seasons.
Availability has mostly submarined the Wolves recently and is a threat to do so again. Russell has missed at least 19 games in all his seasons besides his rookie year and All-Star year. Beasley only has one year with less than 19 games missed. Patrick Beverley is prone to miss games with aging knees and a reckless playing style. Only Anthony Edwards is a safe bet to stay on the floor.
And when the Wolves best players are on the floor, they’ll bleed points. Towns is still young and talented enough to get to an average playing level but has not exhibited that in his five seasons. The Wolves have some plus defenders, but most will equally drag down the offense. The Wolves are severely limited because of their lack of two-way play, but the upside on offense is top-10 level.
This team is talented enough to chase a play-in spot. A franchise with just one playoff appearance since KG’s prime will be motivated to accomplish at least that much.