Minnesota Timberwolves O/U 28.5
Will this team finally start winning now that they ditched Wiggins?
What happened last season?
It’s November 2019. The Minnesota Timberwolves score a win over another playoff hopeful, the San Antonio Spurs, to improve their record to 10-8, elevating them to seventh place in a stacked Western Conference. A win over Golden State during that stretch is especially encouraging. Andrew Wiggins is off to an inspired start and outduels D’Angelo Russell (52 points) – the Timberwolves’ #1 offseason target –that night in an overtime win for the Wolves with a season-high 40 points. Wiggins will put up 30-spots in two of the next three games as well. Unfortunately, this would be the high-water mark for the team.
After achieving their tenth win, the Wolves would go on to lose 11 straight games, the eleventh to that same Warriors team now deeply entrenched at the bottom of the standings. Russell scored an efficient 30 points while Wiggins struggled mightily with Towns on the bench, scoring 22 points on 27 attempts with just one 3-pointer and one free throw made. Soon after that, the team would be almost completely disbanded.
The 10-8 start was probably impossible to sustain – so much of it came from an uncharacteristic Wiggins shooting streak that was bound to fall to Earth. November saw Wiggins (-1.19 RPM) record a true shooting percentage of 56.6% on 30.1% usage, surely the best production of Wiggins’ career. The Wolves had all of their key rotation players available in that Spurs win sans Jake Layman (-0.17 RPM), their sneaky-solid pickup and mainstay of the injury report. Towns (2.12 RPM) had a bum knee that knocked him out of the lineup midway through the losing streak; he would return for a few weeks before getting shut down right before the All-Star break. And without KAT, Wiggins simply had no support for generating offense.
Get busy living or get busy dying then. The Timberwolves descent would not be reversed, and instead, exacerbated. On February 5, the Timberwolves traded away Robert Covington, one of their most effective players, along with Jordan Bell, Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, and Keita Bates-Diop. In return, the Wolves received draft capital, Evan Turner (waived), Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez, and Jarred Vanderbilt. The very next day, the Timberwolves would get their man, trading Andrew Wiggins for D’Angelo Russell, finally bringing an end to a disappointing half-decade with their former overall #1 pick. Gorgui Dieng was also jettisoned, and the Wolves picked up some other flotsam from the Warriors and Heat. On February 10, Towns would play his last game of the season. The Wolves would drop nine of their last 12 games which locked them into 14th in the Western Conference. Their tanking efforts were rewarded with the opportunity to pick first in the 2020 NBA Draft.
What happened in the offseason?
The Timberwolves were on the clock since late August, once again facing the choice of who to select first from a field of underwhelming top draft prospects. (Just for fun, open up another browser tab and look at the players selected in the 2014 lottery spots. Ouch. We’ll likely do the same thing six years from now with this draft.) With that pick, the Wolves selected Anthony Edwards, a prospect that is reminding some of… Andrew Wiggins. At the back end of the first round, the Wolves will bring in Jaden McDaniels and leave Argentine Leandro Bolmaro overseas for a bit before bringing him over to Minnesota.
The last time the Wolves made that arrangement with a first-round draft pick was with Ricky Rubio, now older and fully bearded in his second tour of duty with the team. Rubio’s previous stint with the Wolves was generally good if a bit underwhelming. Now he’s understood to be the steadying presence at the point position, a role mostly held by Jeff Teague over the years Rubio played outside of Minnesota. Teague’s decline (-2.92 RPM) has been rapid since the Hawks days.
Ed Davis was awful in Utah last year (RPM -5.48 RPM); a performance ticking back toward positive semi-recent play is a fair expectation given his mostly positive play prior to that.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
The primary failure of last year’s roster was that there was so little offensive playmaking outside of Towns and Wiggins. And relying on Wiggins for offense as much they did last season was already iffy. The Wolves have mostly corrected that void by bringing in D’Angelo Russell. His usage over the past three seasons have eclipsed 30% with steadily increasing efficiency.
At age 24 and now paired with the best pick-and-roll partner of his career, it’s easy to get excited about Russell’s offensive potential. And for the sake of comparison: Wiggins has never once hit 30% usage or 55.6% true shooting percentage in any of his six professional seasons. When Russell is on the bench, the ball be in the sure hands of Rubio. All of Minnesota’s surrounding players should experience an offensive boon when these two skilled playmakers have the ball. Rubio’s size and defensive acumen will allow the two to play together to finish games (they’re certain to start together at some point of the season too).
Towns is squarely in his offensive prime and should be expected to continue to be a very positive influence on that side of the floor. His backups will be the inverse of that but should be adequate.
All of the doubt then, falls on the wings. Malik Beasley (0.24 RPM 19-20) was their other prized midseason acquisition and lavished with a rich 4-year deal. He should be able to resume a role akin to the one he played in Denver alongside Jamal Murray. Edwards is the presumed starter at the 2-spot and he’ll be seeking baskets as well. Suddenly, the Wolves may have gone from too limited to too thirsty when they have the ball.
Josh Okogie is presumed to retain his starting position at the 3 and should benefit from a reduced offensive role. The Jarrett Culver Point Guard Experience is likely shelved and he’ll be asked to play up a position given the newfound glut of guards. If Jake Layman can return to pre-injury form, he’ll provide some steady minutes as a 10th man.
There’s some potential for Okogie to slide all the way up to 4. Presumably, Juan Hernangomez will start there, but unless Adam Sandler lets him hold the black opal, he’s not likely to remain a starter for long.
The projection
Of all of the calculated projections, the one for the Wolves disagrees with the Vegas-established one the most. The perception is clear: this is a team that never makes the playoffs in a conference stacked with playoff hopefuls. Last year’s defense was suspect (21st overall) and now Russell and Edwards are in the backcourt, a sure step back in defensive acumen.
But the reason for optimism is valid. Between Russell and Rubio, the Wolves should be able to have a capable point guard on the floor at all times. Last year, the Wolves trotted out Jeff Teague and Shabazz Napier before Russell arrived.
With the exception of last year, Towns has played over 2500 minutes per season. Given the Wolves’ thin frontline rotation, I’d expect him to be in the top 20 of minutes played. Towns is entering his age 25 season and has some potential to improve, especially on the defensive end. All players besides Rubio and Davis are on the upswing of their playing ability.
Consider the Wolves’ motivation this season: they are out a first-round pick to Warriors unless their pick lands in the top three. I don’t think the Wolves are in anyone’s list of bottom-three teams; they’d have to embrace the tank fast and hard to salvage that pick. The play-in games should be enticing enough to motivate mediocre teams to try deeper in the season and leave the tanking to the truly awful teams.
The calculated projection has the Wolves qualifying for the play-in game, and even I may be skeptical of that. (Consider: their projection is based on one of the lowest samples of minutes from the previous season.) But they’re closer to the play-in game than last place in the West.