Los Angeles Clippers O/U 46
The Clippers advanced to the conference finals despite losing Kawhi mid-playoffs. How will they fare without Kawhi for most of the season?
What happened last season?
Fresh off of earning his second Finals MVP award, Kawhi Leonard connived a way to pair up with Paul George in hometown Los Angeles. However, the two have taken the floor together much less frequently than they envisioned with just 43 games played together last season and 37 the season before. They’ve blitzed the competition in their 1,900 minutes shared over the last two seasons, ringing up a net rating of +15.7. There’s nothing particularly magical about the duo – they simply take turns bludgeoning defenses with ruthlessly efficient isolations. Leonard and George ranked 13th and 14th respectively in isolations per game. Combined, they generated an average of just over 1.0 points per isolation, a number good enough to rank in the 76th percentile, equivalent to Donovan Mitchell. Both of them are fantastic from the three-point line where they combine to make over 5 per game on over 40% accuracy. As off-ball threats, they provide one another spacing to operate in isolation. And when they’re absolutely engaged, they remain two of the most imposing perimeter stoppers in the NBA.
Despite missing at least one of Leonard or George for nearly half the season, the Clippers kept their offense humming with similarly minded isolation players that were competent enough to generate good shots. Lou Williams has long been a self-sufficient scoring source off the bench although his efficiency continued to wane resulting in a midseason trade for set-up man Rajon Rondo. Marcus Morris was just two years removed from being a primary scoring threat for the Knicks. Ditto for Reggie Jackson with the Pistons. All of the shot generating capability plus each player’s individual shooting skill coalesced into one of the greatest distance shooting exhibitions of all time. The Clippers drilled over 40% of their three-point shots on a just-over-league-average 34.7 attempts. Eleven players (eleven!!) made 39.7% of their threes or better with at least one attempt per game. Despite doing nothing else spectacular on offense – they were near league average in offensive rebounds and turnovers, and they rarely got to the free throw line – the Clippers ranked 4th in offensive efficiency.
They also ranked as a top 10 defensive unit. In addition to Leonard and George, the Clippers employed several players capable of individual on-ball defense with a capability to switch across positions. Nicolas Batum resurrected his career with solid two-way play and availability; improbably, he played the most minutes for the team. Patrick Beverley has long been one of the best defenders at the point guard position. Same for Serge Ibaka, although injuries limited kept him (and Beverley) on the sideline for long stretches. Terance Mann improved his shooting enough to stay on the court to get his arms in the way of everything on defense.
Add it all up and the Clippers were second overall in point differential. That differential was only good enough for the 4-seed in the West, although their playoff seeding was a planned result. The Clippers out-tanked the lottery-ball-seeking Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder in the last two regular season games to draw the Dallas Mavericks and avoid the Los Angeles Lakers’ side of the playoff bracket. The gambit nearly backfired as the Clippers fell behind 2-0 in their first round series. However, they rallied to win in 7 behind some of Kawhi’s finest playoff performances. They rallied again down 2-0 against Utah Jazz despite losing Kawhi midway through the series on the back of some of George’s finest performances. The Clippers would not rally down 2-0 a third time in the conference finals versus the Phoenix Suns.
What happened in the offseason?
The Clippers’ biggest transaction of the season was based around an exchange of veteran guards. Long time Clipper Patrick Beverley was packaged with midseason pick-up Rajon Rondo for Eric Bledsoe who has been traded in three consecutive offseasons. Beverley was an ideal 3-and-D guard to flank with the team’s playmaking forwards (although Kawhi Leonard apparently disagrees). Lineups with Beverley with Kawhi and Paul George yielded a +11.4-rating last season and +14.6 in the 2019-2020 season. Eric Bledsoe is at least as capable of a defender as Beverley but is a significant downgrade as a floor spacer. Beverley cans 40% of his threes year to year while Bledsoe is routinely below average. However, Bledsoe is a better overall scorer who should fit well with Lue’s small-ball lineups that puts dribble-drive threats on the floor. Rondo was mildly successful as a backup point guard for the Clippers after failing to fit in with the Atlanta Hawks at all. However, he was eventually phased out of the playoff rotation as Lue leaned more on Reggie Jackson.
The Clippers signed Justise Winslow to a small multi-year deal. Although the contract is relatively low-risk, Winslow will be relied upon to be a rotation piece while Leonard is out of the lineup. Winslow mightily struggled in his midseason return to the floor for the Grizzlies, looking particularly inept on offense. Winslow’s one decent shooting season with the Heat looks to be an outlier and he submitted his worse shooting season to date with the Grizzlies last season. He was mercifully pulled from the lineup as the Grizzlies looked forward to the playoffs. Winslow may have an opportunity to play point forward for the bench unit, a role that led to his greatest success with the Heat.
The Clippers were busy in the back half of the draft including making two second round picks (BJ Boston, Jason Preston) that were signed to guaranteed contracts. Los Angeles moved up a few spots in the first round to nab Keon Johnson with the 21st pick. Despite being just 19 years-old, Johnson will have a chance to crack the rotation given the Clippers’ injury woes to start the season. He appears to be a fine defender but a long way away from contributing on offense given his low volume, low accuracy 3-point shooting in college.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
The Clippers enter the season severely limited due to injury. Early second round pick Jason Preston will miss the first couple months of the season recovering from a right foot surgery. Serge Ibaka’s ailing back will keep him from suiting up for the season opener and makes him prone to miss more games than that. Of course, the most impactful absence will be Kawhi Leonard’s. Leonard partially tore his ACL in the second round series against the Utah Jazz. He had surgery in mid-July, making him just three months removed from that procedure. Kawhi has a history of being cautious with return from injury; most projections have him out until post-All-Star break. Even if he does return, he’s unlikely to perform at peak levels.
That leaves Paul George as the primary generator of offense. George has been a second-leading man recently, paired with an All-NBA teammate over the last four seasons. However, George has played nearly half of his minutes in a Clippers uniform without Kawhi on the floor with him. He’s capable of carrying a team, but he’s already at 30% usage rate over the last two seasons, a demanding figure. George’s defensive impact is sure to take a step back with the energy he’ll need to expend in generating offense.
Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson are the two players that will have to make up for Kawhi’s offensive output. They each logged a 20% usage rate last season, and both have exceeded that for lesser teams. Reggie Jackson thrived in the playoffs, roasting opponents in isolation as Ty Lue moved toward lineups that maximized spacing. Marcus Morris had an incredible shooting season mostly on the strength of his 47.3% three-point shooting mark. Half of his shots came from distance but mostly on spot-up attempts. Now that his team demands more scoring options, Morris may revert to his iso-heavy, long-2 diet from his Knicks and Celtics days.
Luke Kennard was acquired last season with the expectation to provide some pick-and-roll playmaking in addition to being an off-ball shooting threat. He mostly failed to step up in this role and was limited in the rotation for much of the season. Once again, he’ll be expected to generate more offense for his team. Expect his 17% usage rate to increase significantly.
Once upon a time, Nicolas Batum was a significant playmaker for a team but at this stage he’s mostly a catch-and-shoot-or-pass. Justise Winslow may get to reprise his role as point forward but is a net-negative if he can’t approach league average three-point shooting. Eric Bledsoe is no one’s first choice to score these days, but he’s been responsible for it before. Terance Mann is a candidate to make a leap as he showed significant progression throughout the season and especially in the playoffs.
Ivica Zubac appears to be firmly entrenched as the team’s starter, especially with Ibaka’s availability to be a question throughout the season. Journeyman Isaiah Hartenstein is the only other big man behind these two, so Lue may have no choice but to go small with lineups that feature Morris, Batum, and Winslow at center. This alignment will juice up the team’s scoring potential and the roster is talented enough individually to switch across all positions. However, it’s a taxing strategy to utilize throughout the entire regular season.
The projection
Despite the loss of Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers appear to have a roster that can generate offense for themselves, and most are two-way threats that can shoot and defend well across most positions. However, most of them are about to be overextended. Paul George already absorbs the 16th most possessions in the league so there’s a cap on how much more he can take on. Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and others on the team thrived as tertiary options. Most of them have shown on lesser teams a significant drop in efficiency when asked to take on a bigger scoring load.
The Clippers only employ three players over 6’-8” and one of them has a lingering back issue. The team was incredibly successful playing small ball, particularly in the playoffs. They’ll have no choice but to lean on those alignments even more which leaves them dependent on a one-way player (Bledsoe, Winslow, Kennard) instead of one of the best two-way players in the NBA.
Much of the Clippers’ success was due to an all-time three-point shooting performance. That level is sure to come down without Kawhi making and generating attempts. His replacements are Winslow and Bledsoe, two of the most dreadful shooters in recent seasons.
The major drop in talent from Kawhi and his replacements plus the regression in shooting likely leaves the Clippers fighting for a playoff spot. I’ll take plus odds on them not making the playoffs on what seems to be a 50-50 proposition.