Denver Nuggets O/U 48.5
The Nuggets succeeded in life after Murray for 23 games last season. Can they do it again until Murray's Spring return?
What happened last season?
Nikola Jokic is the Nuggets’ gravity. His teammates orbit around him with cuts to the basket and off-ball screens to out-position the defense by just a margin. That’s enough for Jokic, who can control the ball anywhere in the halfcourt, to hit them for an open look. His 8.3 assists per game ranked sixth in the league. He crafted these without dribbling the air out of the ball like the guards in front of him (Westbrook, Young, Paul, and Doncic all average around 5 dribbles per touch; Jokic, just a third of that). Perhaps someone out there has counted how many assists led directly to dunks or layups; I’d wager Jokic leads the league in that category. Maybe not until Daryl Morey Jr’s generation will “fun” be quantified as a contributor to team success but it feels like Jokic’s passes provide more than 1 assist plus 2 or 3 points. Witnessing Jokic hit teammates with no-looks and one-touch passes is fun; being a recipient of those passes must be blast.
Jokic’s scoring was as devasting as his passing. Jokic nearly reached 40-50-90 shooting percentages that added up to 64.7 TS%, good for 15th in the league. He did so on 18 field goal attempts per game (17th in the league) including the most two-point field goals attempted all season. Only Steph Curry and Zion Williamson had a similar combination of shot volume and efficiency. All but few of the most efficient scorers are three-point specialists or dunkers. Only Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid have shot charts as varied as Jokic’s. Jokic is the ultimate two-way player on offense – one that is as efficient generating baskets for his teammates as he is for himself.
Jokic was the league’s MVP before injuries eliminated his competition for the award. Speaking of availability, only Tom Thibodeau’s Julius Randle and RJ Barrett logged more regular season minutes than Jokic.
However, the story of the 2020-2021 Denver Nuggets is better told through the lens of their second-best player, Jamal Murray. Both the team and Murray’s season followed a three-act structure. For no reason whatsoever, let’s title these acts with De La Soul album titles.
Act 1: Stakes Is High. 15-13, 8th in West on February 17. The Nuggets’ performance in the Orlando bubble was bested only by the Miami Heat in exceeding expectations and bested by no one in drama. First, they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to the Utah Jazz in Round One which required them to hold their breath while a potential series-winning half-court heave hit the back of the rim. Jamal Murray was engaged in an electric duel with Donovan Mitchell – the two of them traded multiple 40+ point performances including Game 4 in which they both scored 50. Murray averaged 31.6 points for the series on near 50-50-90 shooting splits. The Nuggets fell behind 3-1 again in the next series against the Los Angeles Clippers yet advanced past them too despite falling behind by double digits in the second halves of Games 5 and 6. Murray buried the Clippers in Game 7 with 40 points.
Expectations for the 2020-2021 season were elevated for both the team and its point guard – the Nuggets were now title contenders and Murray an All-Star candidate. Murray had yet to string together a consistently dominant regular season, a checkpoint that his counterpart in Utah hit prior to their playoff battle. The Nuggets stumbled to a barely-.500 start while Murray failed to raise his game. Murray wasn’t playing poorly – most of his statistical indicators were in line with his performances from the previous two seasons – but he didn’t come close to his 2020 playoff level. The Nuggets’ other player bursting with scoring potential, Michael Porter Jr., was similarly good but not All-Star worthy. Porter had still yet to gain coach Michael Malone’s full confidence, averaging less than 30 minutes per game to this point.
Act 2: 3 Feet High and Rising. 31-18 (16-5), 4th in West on April 4. Murray wasn’t the only player to notch 50 points against the Washington Wizards, but maybe no other player needed it more. He caught fire from this February game on, shooting well north of 40% from three which propelled his TS% to over 60%. On the whole, Murray had his most accurate shooting season with his highest volume to date. MPJ was unleashed in March, finally earning over 30 minutes a game. His shooting demanded that he see floor time as Porter drilled over 50% of his threes and 60% overall from the field in this stretch.
The Nuggets then landed a trade for Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon who fit hand-in-glove as soon as he took the floor. No longer responsible for generating a large volume of shots, Gordon thrived on cuts to the basket. Despite a miserable three-point shooting performance in Denver, Gordon easily achieved his most efficient scoring season to date. More importantly, Gordon provided the Nuggets a big wing defender to match up against potential Los Angeles threats in the playoffs.
Act 3: De La Soul Is Dead. 47-25 (16-7), 3rd in West. Murray would miss four games with knee soreness, but the Nuggets wouldn’t lose a game with Gordon until the last one Murray sat. Murray tore his ACL in his first game back, torpedoing the Nuggets’ hopes of making a repeat run to the conference finals. The Nuggets would try to duct tape the team together with the free agent signings Austin Rivers and Shaq Harrison to fill the void left by Murray’s injury and the outgoing guards (Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton) in the Gordon trade. Will Barton would fall to injury in late April, missing the rest of the regular season and most of the playoffs. By the Suns series, the Nuggets were starting rookie point guard Facundo Campazzo and newcomer Austin Rivers in the backcourt. The Suns swept the Nuggets out of the playoffs, taking a spot the Nuggets surely thought they were worthy of having.
What happened in the offseason?
No team had less transactions this offseason than the Nuggets. The only move of significance was the signing of Jeff Green to make up for the departure of Paul Millsap. Despite losing a step, Millsap could still aptly keep up with big wings and his hands remained disruptive as he racked up a combined steal and block percentage of over 5%. However, Millsap often missed time with an assortment of injuries during his 4-year stint with Denver, including 16 games missed the past season. His three-point shooting waned after a high-water mark of 43.5% in 2019-2020. Jeff Green, meanwhile, just achieved his first season shooting over 40% from 3, way out of line with his recent seasons. He has similar build to Millsap and is maybe a step quicker than Millsap these days. However, he was never on Millsap’s level as a defender. Green has played the role of backup center in his last stops with the small-ball minded 19-20 Houston Rockets and 20-21 Brooklyn Nets. Green will most frequently be aligned with the incumbent J. Green as stretch 4/5s off the bench.
The Nuggets drafted “Bones” Hyland with the 26th pick in the draft. Hyland may get a chance to crack the point guard rotation while Murray is on the mend. Hyland is hyper-aggressive scorer that showed his game could translate to at least summer league level. He could be a change-of-pace option for Malone if he finds his bench is struggling to generate points.
What will happen this season?
No team brings back more of its players and minutes than the Denver Nuggets although several of these players have yet to be in uniform together. It’s easy to imagine the non-Murray 2021-2022 Nuggets to look like Act III. The Nuggets will hope Murray will be good enough in his return to emulate Act II.
That team was solid enough to win nearly 70% of its games despite losing Will Barton in addition to Murray. Facundo Campazzo is the likely starter as point guard, but Jokic will conduct the offense and even bring up the ball once in a while. Jokic predictably pumped up his usage after Murray’s injury and is likely to crack 30% usage for the first time in his career. However, it’s Michael Porter Jr. who is primed to wrestle away the void in offensive creation. Porter’s shot attempts increased month to month last season (minus a slightly muted May) and reached 16.5 in April. It would be unsurprising if Porter became the team’s leader in field goal attempts this year. His shooting percentages warrant way more shots – Porter ranked 8th in the league in TS% and the only player above him who took more shots was Kevin Durant. Porter takes nearly half of his shots from distance but has ability to free himself in isolation. Not many defenders are going to bother his shot – he’s 6’10” with a high, straight rise on his jumper. Porter’s next leap will be leading more pick-and-rolls and finding shots for others on these possessions. Increasing his career assist average from 1.0 to 2.0 would be a nice start.
The bench unit may be starved for offensive creation. Austin Rivers is, sadly, the most willing shot creator in the reserves. He slashes to the basket with blinders on, although he’s capable of getting there. However, he’s gravitating to the three-point line where he’s been a league average shooter in recent years. Green and Green will provide spacing for Rivers and others for drives. Protecting the rim will be a problem for the bench unit – last year the Nuggets allowed a league-worst 65.3% shooting near the basket, an issue sure to worsen with the defensive downgrade from Paul Millsap to Jeff Green. Jokic has improved slightly in this area but won’t be challenging for DPOY any time soon.
The biggest questions are obviously (1) when does Murray come back? and (2) how does he look when he does? Murray’s timeline is uncertain although a late season return is anticipated. Murray of Act I would be a win for the Nuggets; it’s unrealistic to expect more from a player returning off an ACL injury as teams are rounding into playoff form. If Murray’s timeline gets pushed back or remains murky, the Nuggets are candidates to seek an upgrade at point guard at the trade deadline.
The bet
The Nuggets proved they could win games at a high rate without Jamal Murray. Both Jokic and Porter Jr. are scoring efficiency darlings and could stand to take more shots, particularly Porter who only took 13.4 shots per game. Aaron Gordon’s best use is neither as a score-first forward or point forward but he’s done it for limited Orlando Magic teams and may be tasked with doing so for a similarly limited Nuggets bench.
The Nuggets were a slightly better than average defensive team last season but will suffer from the loss of Murray and Paul Millsap. Murray is a big guard that is at least an average defender. Neither Campazzo, one of the smallest players in the league, or Rivers, a fine defender but a limited shooter and creator, offer good two-way play. This concern is a bit muted because Will Barton and Monte Morris are good enough on both sides and the Nuggets don’t need a traditional point guard with Jokic on the floor.
This win projection likely fails to account for Jokic’s ability to elevate his teammates’ play with his all-around offensive brilliance. However, the team’s depth is weak despite some promising flashes from its younger bench players.