Dallas Mavericks O/U 48.5
Luka can lead a team of Slovenians to fourth place in the Olympics by himself. Can he take the Mavericks to fourth place in the West?
What happened last season?
You’d have to squint to see the difference between the Mavs’ last two seasons. Let’s put our glasses on.
The team got one game closer to making the second round, yet it felt like a season of unrealized growth if not one of slight regression.
Luka Doncic came into the season as the odds-on favorite for MVP but showed up doughy in December. He played his way into game shape and was in peak MVP-form by March in which he lit up the league with nearly 30 points a game on 65% TS%, an incredible mark for a player with such a high offensive volume. His playoff performance was spectacular – he had a triple-double in Game 1 and scored 46 points in a Game 7 loss in which the Mavs bench contributed a total of six points. He’s averaged 33.5 PPG in his playoff career which matches Michael Jordan’s average for highest of all-time.
Kristaps Porzingis showed promise of being a worthy running mate in last year’s playoffs, particularly with a 34-13 output in Game 3. It would be his last game of the season. His knee problems would plague him throughout the 2020-2021 season leading him to miss 40% of regular season games including the first nine games of the season and 10 of the last 14. He was as effective as he’d ever been when he did suit up, notching career highs in TS% and rebound percentage. However, his volume mostly stagnated and he looked as slow as ever on defense, evidenced by his career low steal and block rates. Worse, Porzingis never found his rhythm in the playoffs, and he found himself to be scapegoat after underwhelming games that included multiple games with single-digit scoring.
The rest of the Mavs frontcourt struggled to make up for Porzingis’ absence. Maxi Kleber missed 22 games and Dwight Powell did not reach his pre-Achilles-injury level all season. Rick Carlisle was left to rely on bubble pick-up Willie Cauley-Stein and midseason acquisitions James Johnson and Nicoli Melli to fortify the big man rotation. None of the options were particularly effective.
The offseason exchange of Seth Curry for Josh Richardson (ORPM -1.37) was a key factor in dragging down an offense that went from the most efficient of all-time the year previous to one that merely finished 9th in the league last season. Guards Tim Hardaway and Jalen Brunson embraced the bit of extra offense and even saw a slight uptick in scoring efficiency. Hardaway elevated his game in the playoffs while Carlisle appeared to lose confidence in Brunson. Brunson was Carlisle’s only reliable young role player through the season; the rest of the Mavs youth barely saw the floor.
What happened in the offseason?
The Josh Richardson for Seth Curry trade was a major backfire for the Mavs that was quickly reversed as soon as free agency season opened. Richardson was dumped for big man project Moses Brown, a move that is mostly a play for addition by subtraction. Richardson had his worst three-pointing shooting season to date; the lack of confidence manifested itself in no increase in shot attempts despite the league-wide increase in attempts from three. The Mavs will try out another 3-and-D player in Reggie Bullock who drilled over 40% of his threes on greater volume and contributed to one of the best defenses in the league. Unlike Richardson, Bullock never got a taste for a more varied offensive role and should be much more comfortable as support player to a Luka-centric offense.
The Sterling Brown signing is a similar play for 3-and-D support on the wings. He received an outsized showcase on a tanking Houston Rockets team. Brown took advantage by posting his best shooting marks on his highest shooting volume to date by far. He offers nothing else on offense but won’t be asked to when he’s playing alongside Luka.
The biggest changes for the Mavs happened off the court. The longtime brain trust of Donnie Nelson Jr. and Rick Carlisle are replaced by unproven GM Nico Harrison and mostly-proven-to-be-a-problem Jason Kidd. In five seasons and two stints as a head coach, Kidd left each team in a failed attempt for more power while never surpassing 44 wins in a season.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
If not for the coaching change, the Mavs probably would have looked a lot like they did last season. The only real change of note in roster make-up are the expected upgrades on the wing of Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown over Josh Richardson and Wes Iwundu.
So then, what will Kidd make of this team? Kidd’s longest head coaching tenure was his most recent, a 3.5-year run with the Milwaukee Bucks. Kidd’s vision then was to take his young, big, most promising player and turn him into a point guard. Giannis Antetokounmpo was merely one season old when Kidd joined the Bucks. His playing level increased by strides longer than Giannis takes to the hoop – Giannis saw year-to-year upticks in minutes, usage rate, shot and free throw attempts, field goal percentage, and rebound rate. Kidd’s mad genius idea paid off in the form of an increasing assist rate (save for the season Kidd was dismissed) and decreasing turnover rate. Giannis was an All-Star by Kidd’s third season. It’s also highly likely that the coaching change that removed Kidd elevated Giannis to becoming a two-time MVP and then a Finals MVP.
Kidd won’t have to develop a point guard this time. He inherits a young, big point guard with plenty of promise to fulfill. Luka Doncic is the MVP favorite for the second consecutive year. His statistical markers are at least on par with pre-MVP season Giannis except with greater usage including a doubling in the assist rate category (he’s finished 2nd and 4th in the last two seasons). By his second year, Luka was a top-five passer in the league, locating shooters with passes that only James Harden and LeBron James make with regularity.
Luka and the Mavs have mostly looked like Harden’s Rockets before the Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook infusions. It’s difficult to see how the offensive will evolve past this given the limited shot creation around Luka. Reggie Bullock is even more confided in his game than Josh Richardson. Finding ways to focus more offensive possessions around Porzingis might be less efficient in the regular season but a necessity in the playoffs. It’s an idea Kidd has already promoted. It remains to be seen if Luka will embrace possessions off the ball.
It’s the defense that will likely get a bigger makeover. Rick Carlisle played a traditional drop-back defense, mostly because bigs like Porzingis and Boban Marjanovic don’t have the feet to keep up with anything more aggressive. Carlisle was also one of the foremost practitioners of the zone defense and had been for years. In the three years with Luka, the Mavs finished 20th, 18th, and 20th in defensive efficiency. They were absolutely exploited in the playoffs as the Clippers posted marks of offensive ratings of 122 in each of the two series; for context, the Jazz led the regular season in ORtg with 118.
Jason Kidd famously employed an aggressive trapping scheme both with the Nets and the Bucks. Year 1 was a success for the Bucks on that side of the court as they finished 4th in defensive rating. The next two years saw them fall to 19th, 23rd, and then 25th before Kidd got fired. The criticism on Kidd’s defense was loud all the way up to the firing; reportedly, he once yelled at players and staff, “If you talk shit about my defense, I’ll kick your ass.” Stubbornness to his defensive philosophy won’t likely suit this roster well. Luka saves his energy for offense and Porzingis has gotten slower by the year. Brunson and Hardaway aren’t long enough to bother passing lanes.
Porzingis will start at the 4 despite these slow feet. The Mavericks currently employ four centers, three of them legitimately over 7-feet tall. Kidd has committed to starting Dwight Powell, a rim-running big who struggled in his first year back from an Achilles injury. Kidd’s best lineup likely requires Porzingis at center flanked by his best perimeter stoppers that can shoot, Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock.
The projection
This iteration of the Dallas Mavericks looks to be stagnating despite the ascendancy of Luka Doncic. While he’s no doubt amongst the best with room to grow, his statistical success is founded very much by volume over efficiency. Luka led the league in usage rate last season, although the high volume is as much out of necessity as it is by preference. Only Porzingis has proven capable of carrying more offense than he already is but finding ways to increase his involvement has been a challenge. He also didn’t prove himself worthy of more with his playoff performance.
Rick Carlisle has long been regarded as a top-tier coach. Carlisle has engineered multiple league-leading offenses in the past decade despite a clear talent gap. He’s only had a post-prime Dirk and an age 20/21 Luka as All-Stars on his teams. Kidd underachieved with a stacked senior-citizen team in Brooklyn. Then with a star as talented as Luka, Kidd barely finished over .500 in his last 1.5 seasons in Milwaukee. Most would agree that the change from Carlisle to Kidd is an appreciable downgrade.
A season in which the Mavs eclipse 50 wins is one in which Luka Doncic likely won the MVP, which is very much in the realm of possibility. In lieu of that, the Mavs appear to be stuck with a win total in the mid-40s fighting to guarantee a playoff spot without the need of a play-in game victory.