Charlotte Hornets O/U 38.5
The middling Hornets have finished handfuls of games under .500 for the past 5 years. Is there a reason to expect anything different this seson?
What happened last season?
After selecting Kemba Walker with the 9th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, the Hornets have struck out in the draft more than Michael Jordan in a White Sox jersey. The Hornets vaulted up to the third position in the 2020 Draft Lottery in a consensus three-player draft. Luckier still, the two teams in front of them passed up on the best player available.
LaMelo Ball became a franchise icon as soon as the Golden State Warriors selected James Wiseman with the second pick. LaMelo was the most hyped and possibly most questioned of the Ball brothers as he tantalized with high-wire, highlight reel passes and equally frustrated with shooting inaccuracy and selection. Coach James Borrego brought LaMelo off the bench for the first 20 games, as both coach and player seemed content with easing into the season. LaMelo would start the next 21 and caught fire with his shot, including over 40% from three. Despite fracturing his wrist, missing the next 21 games, and then struggling in his return, LaMelo had easily outshone the rest of his class and was honored with Rookie of the Year.
It’s arguable LaMelo wasn’t even the most important addition to last season’s team. GM Mitch Kupchak splurged on a contract offer to free agent Gordon Hayward. After a couple of seasons playing fourth banana in Boston, Hayward increased his usage back in line with his Utah days without sacrificing any efficiency. Yet again, injuries interrupted Hayward’s season. This time, he suffered a foot sprain just two weeks after LaMelo’s injury but unlike Ball, Hayward would not return. The Hornets had achieved a 20-20 record before LaMelo went out then climbed to 25-23, good for fourth place in the East, before Hayward exited. The Hornets unraveled with these critical starters sidelined. An 8-16 finish to the season sent them from dreaming about hosting a first round series to getting blown out in a play-in game.
The Hornets simply did not have quality depth to withstand the loss of any of their starters. Former late lottery pick Malik Monk finally (finally!) provided a positive contribution after mostly racking up DNPs to start the season but then he sprained an ankle the same week Hayward got hurt. Brothers Cody and Caleb Martin were overextended in their minutes; the former was simply waived after the season. Brad Wanamaker was cut from the Warriors then was asked to play over 20 minutes a game when he joined the team midseason. Cody Zeller missed his typical allotment of games leaving Borrego to play everybody-beats-the-Biz Biyombo.
Despite the awful bench, the Hornets were in a position to crash the playoffs. Miles Bridges made major strides in his third season, massively improving his three-point accuracy from 33% to 40% while maintaining his defensive integrity. P.J. Washington mostly treaded water in his sophomore season, but the team found success in minutes where P.J. played the 5 which the team experimented more with this past season. The primary drivers of the Hornets success, however, lay in their backcourt. Devonte’ Graham briefly entered the All-Star conversation in the 2019-2020 season. He was less heralded this year as his shot attempts went down and Ball took his starting spot, but Graham was no less impactful. On a per minute basis, he attempted more threes with a barely noticeable decline in marksmanship. Despite his short stature, he was an effective, no-nonsense defender. Terry Rozier earned All-Star talk as he increased his scoring output to over 20 points per game with his strongest shooting percentages. He took over half of shots from three, but his primary improvement was closer to the rim. His two-point field goal percentage exceeded 50% for the first time in his career not only because he shot better but also because he’s nearly eliminated his long 2s. Once a ragged defender with a streaky shot, Rozier is now the Hornets’ most reliable scoring threat, although the defensive effort has taken a backseat.
What happened in the offseason?
The Hornets lose out on Devonte’ Graham after they declined to match the New Orleans Pelicans’ 4-year, $47M offer. In return, the Hornets receive a future first-round pick but no players. Replacing Graham, who started a majority of games for the Hornets over the last two seasons, is career journeyman back-up Ish Smith, who has only started games for non-playoff teams. Ish Smith suited up for the Washington Wizards these past two seasons, his second longest stint with one team in an 11-year career. Smith is basketball’s version of the limited quarterback game manager – he’ll take care of the ball with a pretty solid assist percentage but is unable to generate significant production. He’s always been a terrible scorer, usually not reaching 50% TS% and he’ll often pass up on threes despite shooting a respectable 36.7% with the Wizards.
The Hornets drafted James Bouknight with the 11th pick in the draft and they’ll expect him to be a scoring threat immediately. Bouknight led UConn in scoring, racking up baskets in a variety of ways. Bouknight’s size, draft position and scouting report reads a whole like Malik Monk’s when he came into the league. Bouknight will replace Monk, who finally had a decent shooting season after three seasons of inefficient scoring and poor defense.
Kelly Oubre is the biggest name the Hornets add this offseason. Oubre has not lacked for confidence since leaving the team that drafted him as he’s increased his usage in his stops with Phoenix and Golden State over the last two seasons. He’s missed the last two seasons with injury and a funny thing happened when Oubre sat – his teams started winning. First the Bubble Suns went a perfect 8-0 and then a middling Warriors team raced to a 15-5 finish as soon as Oubre went down with injury.
Finally, the two-headed monster of Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo that gave Hornets fans two headaches both depart in free agency. Zeller was a mostly effective player but missed nearly 40% of games over the last four seasons. Biyombo was a fine defensive presence but has the worst hands in the league. Mason Plumlee replaces them. Mason, like Cody, is the best player of a set of 7-foot brothers. He’s generally a plus on both sides of the court including being an apt passer. He also likely leads the league in reverse dunks.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
Despite some significant changeover, the Hornets should look much like they did last season. Their starting backcourt should power them again with both Ball and Rozier capable of running point guard for the team. Rozier has proven himself to be a reliable volume three-point shooter and now has developed a game inside the arc as well. Ball will have to prove that last season’s shooting was not a fluke as his jump shot was the biggest question of his game going into the draft. Ball has size at his position but was mostly a poor defender all season. However, he’s likely to improve in just his second season, and paired with Rozier, the Hornets should have one of the stronger backcourts in the East.
Hayward is equally capable of conducting offense for the team. There’s been little modification in his game over the past few years, so it’s fair to expect he’ll be the same all-around scoring threat with above average shooting percentages. The one aspect of his game he’s yet to recover since his devastating leg break is his free throw rate which has not eclipsed 30% in any of the past three seasons after easily achieving that mark in every season before that. Unfortunately, the other constant in Hayward’s post-Utah career is his lack of availability. He’s missed 50 games over the last two seasons with an assortment of ailments. It’s optimistic to peg Hayward for than 2,000 minutes in a season.
P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges are ascending forwards still on their rookie deals. If Bridges’ staggering shot improvement is real, he’s a valuable 3-and-D player on a team starved for two-way play. Washington doubled his block rate last year but he’s too small to make an impact on defense when playing center, a position he played for almost half his time. With Zeller and Biyombo outgoing and a rookie slated to be the nominal backup 5, Washington may see even more minutes there. Mason Plumlee is an appreciable upgrade on the outgoing centers, although he’s losing some athleticism with age.
The Hornets starting lineup projects to be a solid one but once again their level of play is expected to crater once the reserves come in. The downgrade from Graham to Ish Smith is massive. Graham could dribble and pull up from 3 when the team needed a shot; Smith might seek a doctor’s note to have an excuse to turn down a 3. Instead, the Hornets will rely upon Kelly Oubre and and James Bouknight to spur the offense when they’re on the court. Oubre is an average-at-best scorer and had major down year with the Warriors. He should be more comfortable in a non-motion offense as he’s best when he’s unconcerned with what his teammates are doing next to him. Borrego looks like he has no better option than to let Bouknight sink or swim considering that his other wing options are Wes Iwundu, Cody Martin, and Jalen McDaniels. It’s an even bet whether each of those three will be on an NBA roster next season. Similarly, high-flying rookie Kai Jones will get a shot to make the rotation with no one behind him challenging for the back-up center spot.
The projection
The Hornets when healthy were the best worst team in a conference where a two-games-over-.500 record past the All-Star game was good enough for the 4-seed. That high-water mark represented a best-case scenario for the Hornets. Something closer to the worst-case scenario found the team losing two out of three games which equates to a 27-win pace.
The East looks to be much improved in the middle of the pack. It’s not clear that the Hornets are. They lost their best bench player and part-time starter Devonte’ Graham for nothing tangible this season. Cody Zeller and Malik Monk were frustrating but decent players that amassed almost 2,000 passable minutes. Mason Plumlee is an upgrade at the center position. Kelly Oubre will have to rally back from a disappointing season. First round picks James Bouknight and Kai Jones could surprise, but rookies generally aren’t up to the task. The other players on the roster definitely are not.
Any injury to the Hornets’ top 6 players brings the team down significantly. And even when things were at their best for the Hornets, they barely cleared the .500 mark.