Brooklyn Nets O/U 56.5
The Nets earned the East's 2-seed despite rarely having its stars available all at once. They'll start the season in a familiar place: without its stars available all at once.
What happened last season?
The excitement over Kevin Durant’s debut with the Nets was quickly supplemented by the very real potential of James Harden reuniting with his (other) former superstar Thunder teammate. Harden began agitating for trade soon into the 2020 offseason; less than a month into the regular season, Harden found himself on yet another Big 3 with Durant.
Prior to that, Caris LeVert started the season vying for the Sixth Man of the Year Award, dominating the ball as soon as he checked into games. He posted a usage rate (31.5%) that exceeded Durant’s and Kyrie Irving’s; surely LeVert thought a Big 3 was already in place. Jarrett Allen was also coming off the bench but only to satisfy DeAndre Jordan’s ego. Allen and LeVert’s opening weeks were impressive that they were central outgoing pieces to acquire Harden.
The Nets would rarely lack for scoring options once Harden was brought on board. The Nets lit up the scoreboard and led the league in offensive rating (118.3). Harden in particular looked energized by playing within a non-self-centered offense. Harden’s passing acumen was unleashed with deadly shooters and canny finishers all around him. Over February and March, Harden was averaging a near triple-double on incredibly efficient shooting. His performance was good enough to warrant MVP buzz until he went down with a hamstring injury.
That Durant was not even the leading MVP candidate on his own team speaks to the Nets’ wealth of talent. Durant had his most efficient shooting season to date – he had career high marks in 3P% and TS% on a usage rate second only to the 2013-2014 season in which Westbrook missed nearly half the season. Durant was also impressive on defense both as an on-ball defender and sometime rim deterrent. It’s incredible that a star of Durant’s stature wasn’t recognized with a single All-Defensive Team vote.
Kyrie Irving looked comfortable ceding point guard and go-to duty to Harden and Durant. In both game play and expressing galaxy brain opinions, it was a typical Kyrie season. He notched a career high TS% and missed 20 games.
If only these three had a chance showcase their dominance more. Hamstrings, COVID, and mental health issues contributed to sideline the principles for a total of 83 games. Altogether, the Durant-Harden-Irving trio played in eight games together, totaling just 202 minutes on the floor together. Their offensive rating of 119.6 was excellent, especially considering the lack of practice together.
Due to injuries across the roster and a transaction seemingly every week, head coach Steve Nash ended up managing 27 players over the season, a number more fitting for a rebuilding team than a championship contending one. There were a couple weeks where LaMarcus Aldridge was the starting center. There was a month where overseas reclamation Mike James carried the bench. Spenser Dinwiddie only took the floor for three games before a season-ending injury. The injuries and flux certainly helped mute the team’s regular season performance which was still good enough for the 2-seed.
The Nets batted around the first-round playoff fodder Boston Celtics for five games before unleashing a hurting on a more worthy playoff opponent. Brooklyn went up 2-0 on the Milwaukee Bucks including a 39-point beatdown in Game 2 despite losing Harden to a hamstring injury early in Game 1. The Nets were on the brink of shutting the door with Game 3 in the balance, but Durant missed a 3 to potentially send the game into overtime. He made up for it with an all-time performance through the rest of the series. Durant notched 49 points in Game 5 and then 48 in Game 7 including an impossible two-point jumper to send the game into overtime. Dragged down by Kyrie’s exit in Game 4, Harden’s hammy, and a miserable Joe Harris shooting exhibition, Durant couldn’t muster enough to pull out the series.
What happened in the offseason?
The Nets’ significant roster turnover over the course of the 2020-2021 season was matched in the offseason. Over half of the team from the playoff roster depart although their starting five from the first round remain. Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton are rotation players that return. Finally, LaMarcus Aldridge un-retired and will rejoin the team.
The backup point guard spot was a revolving door all season for the Nets last year but that will not be the case this year. The Nets scooped up Spurs veteran Patty Mills who exhibited his most aggressive offensive season to date, looking more like the guard that guns for the Boomers in international play. FIBA Patty is likely to dial it back a bit and return to his 2014 Spurs days as a catch-and-shoot threat both spotting up from the wings and flying around screens for jumpers. Landry Shamet, who was traded to the Suns, played a similar style. He’s a much more reliable shooter than any of the outgoing guards and is capable of being a focal point for a bench unit if required. Jevon Carter comes over from the Shamet trade and solidifies depth at the point guard position.
The Nets no longer have to pretend DeAndre Jordan is a starting center as he was traded for cap relief. The move is mostly addition by subtraction, clearing the way for the more promising and effective Nic Claxton. The bigger loss is the departure of small-ball 5 Jeff Green who played nearly 1,900 minutes and, ten years too late for Oklahoma City Thunder fans, complimented Kevin Durant well in the frontcourt. Green is effectively replaced by Paul Millsap who is less capable three-point shooter but can otherwise replicate what Green provided. Millsap, however, is less reliable to be on the floor as he’s been injury prone in his thirties. James Johnson is another frontcourt depth addition who still has some playmaking abilities but little shooting to offer. De’Andre Bembry has racked up a fair amount of NBA experience but has yet to exhibit any positive impact.
The Nets add two late first-round picks in Cameron Thomas and Day’ron Sharpe. Sharpe is stuck behind a half dozen veteran bigs on the roster and is unlikely to crack the rotation. Thomas appears to have an opportunity if Kyrie remains unavailable.
What will happen this season?
Projected Depth Chart and Minutes Distribution
Just a month ago, it was easy to imagine that the Nets might lap the field in offensive efficiency with continuity built amongst the starters after a couple of playoff rounds and a full offseason. All five starters seemed to embrace their role and enjoy each other as teammates. They’re all in their late primes and should only exhibit modest drop-off, if any.
New York City’s vaccine mandate significantly changed the team’s outlook. Apparently, Kyrie Irving believes in the power of scented incense more than he does the COVID vaccine. His refusal to get vaccinated forced the Nets to consider the potential of Kyrie being available for road games only. The team closed that door, and Kyrie will not be a team participant for the foreseeable future. The minutes projection here considers a midseason return for Kyrie or a positive impact from a trade.
Nash begins the season in a familiar spot – managing the roster without all of his stars. Last season, Nash seemed to prefer maximizing shared minutes amongst Durant, Harden, and Kyrie. My guess is that Nash will do so again and play all bench units even if that’s a suboptimal approach for piling up regular season wins. Blake Griffin, Patty Mills, and James Johnson are capable of organizing an offense for a couple of minutes at a time.
However, the drop off from the starters to bench unit is predictably stark which is compounded by the injury potential from the top players. Harden has led the league in minutes before, but the hamstring injury is one that tends to reoccur. Blake Griffin was waived less than a year ago because his knees could no longer justify his contract. LaMarcus Aldridge left the team last year with a heart arrhythmia concern. There’s also the high amount of turnover in the supporting cast; they may struggle through a learning curve.
Jeff Green and Landry Shamet were two of Brooklyn’s better shooters; Patty Mills is the only incoming player that’s a plus outside threat. Millsap and Aldridge have slowly moved out to the perimeter, but both have slow releases and barely average marksmanship. Bembry has floated around the league hoping to find his shot but has yet to. James Johnson and Griffin have fleeting success from three. Bruce Brown would rather trade his spot-up attempts for floaters.
Nash admitted early last year that his team is not built for defense. The collective improved as the season progressed, particularly when DeAndre Jordan was phased out in favor of more Jeff Green and Bruce Brown minutes at the 5. Jordan was inept at playing such a switch-heavy defense while the other two excelled at it. Millsap, Johnson, and Bembry should have no problem playing that style. The Nets may be improved enough to have a league average defense, which would be a substantial improvement from last season.
The projection
The Nets proved last season that even with limited availability from their stars, they are worthy title contenders. And despite the certainty of an extended Kyrie absence, they’re the team with the highest win total, which is worthy of scrutiny.
The Nets are a top-heavy team, and both Durant and Harden have missed significant portions of recent seasons, including Durant missing all of the 2019-2020 season. Key rotation players Blake Griffin and Paul Millsap also have an extensive injury history. Patty Mills appears to be the third most reliable playmaker on the roster, and he’s only exhibited success in that role for his national team.
Still, a team with Durant and Harden should be a near lock to have a top-five offense. The defense improved in the latter part of the regular season and especially in the playoffs. Good health from the Big 3 probably gets them 60 wins, but that scenario is already out the window. Below average depth and a lack of a tertiary all-around offensive threat likely keeps the Nets from a win total in the high 50s.